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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.